Rapids Class VI

Are the Rapids a Contender?

This piece was submitted from CVI's Dave Ferrey. As you've noticed, the CVI webstaff is either MIA or on vacation ... so we're thankful for Dave's view of the current state of the Rapids

Some of wondered about the Rapids tendency to begin the season fairly strong only to fade as the season progresses. Here is my perspective.

The old saying is, it doesn't matter how you start, it's how you end the season. Duh, but is there something behind that hackneyed saying? I think so.

During the first part of the season, players are just getting into shape. They are getting to know one another and getting to know the coaching system. The players skills are still rusty and take some time to get sharp again. Now consider other factors which play into winning and losing. Fitness, types of players (skillful vs. athletic), team awareness. Each of these (along with skills and some other factors) will play a role in the success of a team. My contention is factors other then quality and skillful players are more likely to influence team success during the beginning of the year then later in the year.

Think of the quality of players like a continuum, lowest through highest. Then think of the scale as logarithmic and not linear. Players begin the season on the lower end of the continuum and progress upwards as the season progresses. During the early part of the season, the differences between average and good and good and great are lessoned due to the offseason. As the season progresses and players round into playing form, the difference in the qualities of players become more apparent and has a greater influence over a teams results. Note, when I say skills, I'm not just referring to ball handling, passing and shooting. I'm also thinking of of things like man marking, decision making, positioning, and making intelligent runs off the ball.

Coaching, of course, also plays into this. Think of it like hitters facing a new pitcher again for the 2nd and 3rd times in a game. They've seen what he can do and are able to adapt to the his pitching motion, ball speed and rotation. Yeah, the baseball fanatic out there may come back with, hey, what about those pitchers who get stronger as the game progresses. Yeah, there are so many of them, that now there are long relievers, short relievers, middle relievers, set up men and closers. Better coaches will, based on earlier matches, successfully recognize the strengths and weaknesses of their opponents and coach accordingly.

My bottom line is simply the Rapids team is not good enough to finish the season stronger then they begin it. Things that worked in the first month or two, don't work so well after that. Everyone starts the season tied, Better players and coaches will improve over the season more so then lesser ones. Exceptions exist of course and the 2007 Rockies are perfect examples. Players and (to a lesser extent coaching) can simply "put it together" all at the same time and if they do it at the right time and (this is key) their opponents allow it, lesser teams can achieve results well above their "normal" capabilities. How did the Rockies win the NL? Did they get new players, or a did Hurdle become a genius? Did they develop new skills? No, no and no. If a batter historically hits at the Mendoza line, it doesn't mean he will get exactly 2 hits every 10 official at bats. He may go zero for 30 and then get hits in 6 of the next 7 attempts.

The Rockies are a bad team. They were a bad team before 2007 and a bad team until the last month of 2007. They hit 6 of 7 (so to speak), at the end of the seasons and the teams ahead of them decided to beat each other and swoon at the same time. They are a bad team again in 2008. Same players, same coaches.

The Rapids are the soccer equivalent of the Rockies (without the end of the season luck). They are simply not good enough. I know some people feel the talent on this team is good enough and with better coaching could compete. I disagree. Sure, some players show some brilliance some of the time. The bone headed plays, the basic skill mistakes, the poor decision making, poor marking, shooting and passing aren't coaching issues (well maybe coaching when they were 12). They reflect the quality of the players. Ruud Gullit isn't going to make Sean Franklin an MLS all star and FC isn't going to make Omar put the shot on goal or allow Epko a clear path to the goal. FC did hire and decided to play those that did however.

What about Christian Gomez? Gomez is a very good player maybe a great one, why hasn't he turned the Rapids into a contender. Simple, he doesn't have Moreno, Fred or Emilio to play off of and to. Gomez, when the Rapids play the ball to him, has shown he can control it and move around and forward. But sorry, Clark, Peterson, Cooke, Omar etc. aren't in the same league with the three D.C. players I mentioned.

The team and those that determine who is on the team need to be replaced.

Posted by mark at July 6, 2008 06:54 AM